Tag Archives: Jon Wellinghoff

Why Bezos started Amazon

Jeff Bezos sent his biographer to find the graphs; that’s when I learned about this. The Everything Store: Jeff Bezos and the Age of Amazon, Paperback, August 12, 2014, by Brad Stone (PDF, google book)

Intrigued by Shaw’s conviction about the inevitable importance of the Internet, Bezos started researching its growth. A Texas-based author and publisher named John Quarterman had recently started the Matrix News, a monthly newsletter extolling the Internet and discussing its commercial possibilities. One set of numbers in particular in the February 1994 edition of the newsletter was startling. For the first time, Quarterman broke down the growth of the year-old World Wide Web and pointed out that its simple, friendly interface appealed to a far broader audience than other Internet technologies. In one chart, he showed that the number of bytes—a set of binary digits —transmitted over the Web had increased by a factor of 2,057 between January 1993 and January 1994.

Internet Resource Discovery Services by Bytes
Internet Resource Discovery Services by Bytes, John S. Quarterman, Matrix News 4.2, MIDS, February 1994.

Another graphic showed Continue reading

A Naive Projection of the Growth of the Internet

Just as four years ago I projected solar growth ten years ahead, a quarter century ago I projected Internet growth ten years into the future:

A Naive Projection of the Growth of the Internet
Graph: A Naive Projection of the Growth of the Internet, John S. Quarterman, Matrix News 2.2, MIDS, February 1992.

From 7.7 million Internet users in 1992, I projected the exponential growth of the previous few years ahead a decade, to about 3.8 billion people in 2002.

How close was that estimate? Continue reading

The shift has come: GE, Siemens massive job losses as fossil fuels crash and the sun rises

The carbon bubble is bursting, as jobs fly from some of the biggest companies in the world, because solar and wind power are taking over right now. It’s too late to bet on the wrong nuclear horse or the wrong pipelnie snake. Get out of fossil fuels now: the sun is rising.

Tiffany Hsu and Clifford Krauss, New York Times, 7 December 2017, G.E. Cuts Jobs as It Navigates a Shifting Energy Market,

General Electric, whose new leadership is moving to eliminate bloat and grapple with the fallout from earlier, ill-timed decisions, is taking drastic steps to keep pace with seismic shifts in the global energy industry.

GE ranks first in 2017 downsizing after 12,000 more jobs: Brandon Kochkodin, Bloomberg, 7 December 2017
Brandon Kochkodin, Bloomberg, 7 December 2017, GE Ranks First in 2017 Downsizing After 12,000 More Job Cuts.

The company said on Thursday that it would cut 12,000 jobs in its power division, reducing the size of the unit’s work force by 18 percent as part of a push to compete with international rivals in a saturated natural gas market, adjust to “softening” in the oil and gas sectors and stay abreast of the growing demand for renewable energy.

Solar and wind energy technology is increasingly being deployed Continue reading

Sen. John Barrasso predicted China emissions wrong

See the power behind FERC get it very wrong. About China emissions, about energy and economy, about solar power, and all in one speech.

American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), YouTube, 3 December 2009 (posted 15 Dec 2009), U.S. Senator John Barrasso speaks at ALEC in December 2009 in DC. Part 3,

Just look at China, Continue reading

GA Gov. Nathan Deal signs solar financing law

The sun is finally rising on Georgia, and if that is possible, Florida can follow, and the southeast, the U.S., and the world.

Today is a historic day, when even a governor who took campaign finance funds from a long list of fossil fuel pipeline companies, the governor of the most corrupt state (least stringent ethics laws), when that governor finally signed a law that even the most corruption-prone legislature, after squelching similar bills for a dozen years, finally passed as HB 57 unanimously in both houses.

Dave Williams, Atlanta Business Chronicle, 12 may 2015, Gov. Deal signs bill letting solar installers offer customers third-party financing,

Georgia property owners will get more affordable options for installing solar panels at their homes and businesses under a bill Gov. Nathan Deal signed into law Tuesday.

The legislation, which sailed through the General Assembly unanimously, will let solar installers offer customers third-party financing of installations. That’s a major change from the old law, which required customers to pay up front.

Already two years ago the Georgia Public Service Commissioners, even though overwhelmingly campaign-funded by the industries they regulate, required Georgia Power to buy twice as much solar energy as it wanted. This year Georgia Power’s parent Southern Company’s annual report says its main source of new revenue for both 2013 and 2014 was solar power. And Georgia has already leaped from far behind to become the fastest growing solar market in the nation, with numerous Georgia Power solar utility-scale installations and smaller ones like for Alton Burns in Thomas County and today for George Bennett in Valdosta, Lowndes County, Georgia. This new law Gov. Deal just signed will accelerate that growth even more.

Luis Martinez, NRDC, 12 May 2015, The Sun Also Rises in the Southeast, Continue reading

Bloomberg notices solar now cheaper than all other forms of energy

What Jon Wellinghoff predicted a year ago is starting to filter 300x199 Solar prices dropped below all other energy sources, in Georgia solar breakeven, by John S. Quarterman, 30 November 2014 into the news media: solar is going to win, and very quickly. Welcome to a sunny world!

Tom Randall, Bloomberg, 29 October 2014, While You Were Getting Worked Up Over Oil Prices, This Just Happened to Solar,

After years of struggling against cheap natural gas prices and variable subsidies, solar electricity is on track Continue reading

Fracking panel report –Cape Breton University, Nova Scotia

A reader wondered how Nova Scotia’s fracking ban would result in safer oil and gas company drilling operations instead of just balkanizing the world into fracking permitted and prohibited zones. Actually, Energy Minister Andrew Younger said:

“This way, people will know before it’s allowed — if it’s ever allowed — there will be a full debate in the Legislature.”

And the panel report that was the proximate cause of the ban, by the Nova Scotia Hydraulic Fracturing review, led by President Dr. David Wheeler, explicitly is for: Continue reading

All of the above: mercury water, methane fracking, radioactive waste, water overuse; EPA go clean renewables instead –Susan Corbett

South Carolina Sierra Club Chair Susan Corbett summed up the problem with the EPA’s carbon rule: it opposes one poison while promoting others. We can make a real green clean energy policy based on conservation, efficiency, solar, and wind energy. Remember, you can still send in your own comments directly to EPA.

SC Sierra club, chair at EPA Atlanta hearing, by Elaine Cooper on YouTube 30 July 2014: Continue reading

U.S. electric demand still going down, while solar goes up like a rocket

If we need less electricity and we already getting almost all new energy from solar power, why not shut down some more coal, oil, and nuclear plants, and not build any destructive, hazardous, and unnecessary natural gas pipelines?

See U.S. Electricity Use is Declining and Energy Efficiency May be a Significant Factor by American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, February 25, 2014. See also Changes in Electric Power Annual (EPA) 2012 by the U.S. Energy Information Association (eia), especially Table 1.1. Total electric power industry summary statistics, which says U.S. electric power net generation from all sources went down by 1.3% from 2011 to 2012. The biggest declines were in Petroleum Coke (30.6%), Hydroelectric Pumped Storage (22.9%), Petroleum Liquids (16.7%), Coal (12.7%), and Nuclear (2.6%). The biggest increases in generation were from Wind (17.2%), Natural Gas (20.9%), and Solar (138%). Continue reading

As predicted U.S. solar capacity grew more than 400% in 4 years

This month’s eia report confirms that solar did exactly what former FERC Chair Jon Wellinghoff predicted: “That’s what is happening in solar. It could double every two years.” Wellinghoff’s further prediction remains on the money: “…at its present growth rate, solar will overtake wind in about ten years. It is going to be the dominant player.” Because of exponential growth like compound interest caused by ever-falling solar PV costs, solar will win like the Internet did.

U.S. Energy Information Administration (eia) wrote 22 April 2014, Solar-electric Generating Capacity Increases Drastically in the Last Four Years,

U.S. solar capacity increased significantly in the last 4 years. In 2010, the total solar capacity was 2,326 MW which accounted for a comparatively small fraction (0.22%) of the total U.S. electric generating. capacity. By February 2014, this capacity increased 418% to 12,057 MW, a 9,731 MW gain, and now accounts for almost 1.13% of total U.S. capacity. Reported planned solar capacity additions indicate continued growth

12,057 / 2,326 = 5.18 times, which is more than 2 * 2 = 4, ergo Wellinghoff was right. Continue reading