Just as

four years ago I projected solar growth ten years ahead,
a quarter century ago I projected Internet growth ten years into the future:

Graph:

A Naive Projection of the Growth of the Internet,
John S. Quarterman, Matrix News 2.2, MIDS, February 1992.

From 7.7 million Internet users in 1992, I projected the exponential
growth of the previous few years ahead a decade, to about
3.8 billion people in 2002.

How close was that estimate? Continue reading →