Tag Archives: efficiency

2012 solar deployments driven by Moore’s Law price reductions


Moore's Law in solar Watts/$100


Moore’s Law for solar
is about decreasing price per Watt,
or more Watts per dollar.
Here’s an example of a common confusion, to think it’s about efficiency:

“The curve will obviously become asymptotic at some point, ie,. the rate
of improvement will flatten out, so we end up with a sort of squashed
“S” shape curve, because you can’t get more than 100% efficiency —
36 watts/m2 or so.”

And indeed efficiency probably will flatten out soon.
But it’s not solar
efficiency that’s improving by Moore’s Law: it’s price per watt.
That can keep improving for a long time.

Here’s an example of decreasing price.
Scott Detrow wrote for NPR 23 December 2012,

Forget Fracking: 2012 Was A Powerful Year For Renewables
,


Rhone Resch

“Just to give you perspective,” Resh said, “in Washington, D.C.,
where I live, when I installed solar on my house six years ago, the
average install cost was about $14 a watt. Today it’s about $4 a
watt.”

Here’s another comparison, this one just for solar panels.

KC 170 solar panels, purchased 2005

In 2005 the first set of solar panels we got cost $670 each
and produced 170 Watts DC each, or $4.94/Watt.
In 2011 our second set of solar panels cost $562 each
for 235 Watts DC each, or $2.39/Watt.
That’s more than 50% price decrease for solar panels in six years.
(I can’t compare inverters or support structures directly,
because those were sized so differently, but those have also
come down in price, helping lower the overall install cost).

Year price /Watt price /panel Watts /panel Dimens. square inches Watts /100 sq in. Model
2005 $4.94 $670 170W 50×39″ 1950 8.7 KC 170
2011 $2.39 $562 235W 39.1×64.6″ 2525 9.3 Sharp ND 235 QCJ
2012 $1.32 $310 235W 39.1×64.6″ 2525 9.3 Sharp ND 235 QCJ

Meanwhile, the Watts per surface area hardly changed, from about

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Vermont Comprehensive Energy Plan

Georgia can do this if it wants to,

Final Comprehensive Energy Plan 2011



The Comprehensive Energy Plan (CEP) addresses Vermont’s energy
future for electricity, thermal energy, transportation, and land use.
This document represents the efforts of numerous state agencies and
departments, and input from stakeholders and citizens who shared their
insights and knowledge on energy issues over the past ten months. The plan
can be downloaded from this website or may be viewed at the Department
of Public Service, 112 State Street, Montpelier during regular business
hours.

More about those public comments:

The release of the Final CEP 2011 includes the CEP Public Involvement
Report II (above). This document summarizes the written comments received
during the second public comment period, between the release of the CEP
Public Review Draft (CEP) on September 13, 2011 and the close of the
public comment period on November 4, 2011. Over 1,380 written comments
were received via email, the Comprehensive Energy Plan website, and
hard copy between July 15 and November 4. Approximately 350 stakeholder
groups, including municipal, business, and non-profit entities, submitted
comments. Over 830 form-letter comments were signed and submitted by
members of at least three different organizations. Over 200 comments
were submitted by individual members of the general public.

Real input from the entire state. Imagine that!

Vermont’s population is about 622,000, or the size of a single
Congressional district, so maybe it’s easier for them than for Georgia.
On the other hand, maybe a regional south Georgia energy policy,
or even a county policy, would be possible.

-jsq

After Fukushima: Fewer nukes most places; More in Georgia

Most countries are not building more nuclear power plants,
and some are shutting down some of the ones they have,
because Fukushima has confirmed what Chernoby and Three Mile Island
already told us: maybe the physics is sound, but the business
model leads to unsafe plants.
But in the U.S. and Georgia, it’s full speed ahead for new nukes,
regardless of the risks of radiation leaks or cost overruns.

Christopher Joyce wrote for NPR today,

After Fukushima: A Changing Climate For Nuclear

“We don’t see Fukushima as having a significant impact on the


U.S. industry,” says Scott Peterson, vice president of the industry’s
Nuclear Energy Institute. “The Nuclear Regulatory Commission was renewing
10 licenses for U.S. plants, extending them 20 years in operation. We
were continuing to move forward in examining new reactor designs.”

Nevermind that those extensions mostly go well beyond the design
lifespans of the plants extended.

Marc Chupka, who advises electric utilities as an economist with the
Brattle Group in Washington, wonders who’s going to pay for them.

“Right now, just the plain economics of nuclear power are
underwater,” he says. He notes that over the past decade,
construction costs have skyrocketed and natural gas got more
plentiful and cheaper.

“Things change significantly over relatively short periods of time,”
Chupka says, noting that it takes about a dozen years to plan and
build a new nuclear plant. “That makes it an incredibly challenging
environment to plan for the long term. And that adds to the risk and
it makes investors understandably skittish.”

So we could do what Germany is doing:

Germany says the same: The government will throw its weight and
wealth into solar and wind energy to replace nuclear power.

Or we could listen to the same old excuse:

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Financing for renewable energy projects

Most of the cost of a corporate or personal renewable energy installation
can be funded through federal and state rebates, but the remainder
is what stops most people. Here is what I know about that.
There are many other sources of information.

Federal 30% and Georgia 35% rebates add up to 65% (see below under
DSIRE).
That’s for solar (PV or hot water), wind, and some other related items.

The other 35% is what stops most businesses and people.
35% of a $25,000 house solar system is still $8,750.
People like that it will pay itself off in 9-15 years,
but most people don’t have $8,750 to invest.

That’s a business opportunity for some enterprising local bank or banks.
As

Dr. Noll has explained,

if you pay for that remainder yourself,
the system will pay itself off in about 9 years.
If you get a bank to finance it, more like 15 years.
And local banks currently require collateral other than the system itself
(they like real estate as collateral).
The simplest business opportunity is for a local bank to accept
the solar equipment itself as collateral.
After all, it’s worth 65/35 or 185% of the total loan amount.



The
Georgia Solar Energy Association (GSEA)

can probably tell you more.

Other ways to finance renewable energy projects include:

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To the people of Valdosta and South Georgia —Occupy Valdosta

Posted today in

Occupy Valdosta’s
facebook page:

To the people of Valdosta and South Georgia



We, the local citizens occupying Valdosta, urge you to assert your power.


Exercise your right to peaceably assemble;
to nonviolently occupy
public space;
to create an open process to address the problems we face, and to generate
solutions accessible to everyone.

Our issues are varied, yet related.

We seek

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Solar is cost-effective —Dr. Noll @ LCC 13 September 2011



Dr. Noll made the case for the cost-effectiveness of solar energy
through, among other things, an analogy to finaninc buying a car.

First Dr. Noll thanked people who had supported

WACE’s
anti-biomass work,
and hoped people had had time to read his recent LTE in the VDT,

Waste Not, Want Not
.
Then he addressed Commissioner Raines’

comments of the previous day
.
Dr. Noll pointed out that solar is

fast becoming less expensive

and with financing costs little more than a car or truck.

Here’s

the video:




Solar is cost-effective —Dr. Noll @ LCC 13 September 2011

Regular Session, Lowndes County Commission (LCC),

Valdosta, Lowndes County, Georgia, 13 September 2011.

Videos by Gretchen Quarterman for LAKE, the Lowndes Area Knowledge Exchange.

-jsq

Southern Company committed to communities, renewable energy, energy efficiency

Thomas A. Fanning, chairman, president and CEO of Southern Company,
says his company is committed to communities, renewable energy, and
energy efficiency.
So
helping finance municipal refitting and solar projects

should be a natural for Southern Company!

According to PR from Southern Company, 25 May 2011,

Southern Company Holds Annual Meeting of Shareholders



Fanning also emphasized a continued commitment to the communities the
company serves and stressed the need for a national energy policy and
a robust research and development initiative.

“Southern Company keeps customers at the center of every decision
we make,” said Fanning. “We remain committed to providing reliable,
affordable energy for our customers and to do that we need to maintain
a diverse fuel mix as well as stay focused on developing the newest
technologies.”

Referencing a diverse fuel mix, Fanning highlighted the company’s
commitment to nuclear energy, including building the nation’s first new
units in 30 years. He also discussed the importance of preserving coal –
America’s most abundant energy resource – as well as the role of natural
gas, renewable energy and energy efficiency in meeting its customers
energy needs.

“Furthermore, we are the only company in the industry that is doing
it all. We’ve committed more than $20 billion to these efforts,”
Fanning said.

Sure, he listed renewable energy and energy efficiency last.
But this is the same Thomas A. Fanning who said in May that he’s

“bullish” on solar.

The same CEO of the parent company of Georgia Power, which just

connected a 300 kiloWatt solar plant in Lowndes County.

The same CEO who’s being nagged by the Georgia PSC chairman

“to come up with options in the next 30 days for expanding the tiny amount of electricity generated from solar power.”

And a company that spends more than $20 billion on new energy projects
can afford a few tens of millions for community refitting and solar.

-jsq

Birmingham U.K. municipal solar didn’t wait for larger governments

Banks and power companies can fund municipal solar projects;
cities and counties don’t have to wait for state or federal governments
to provide them grants.
Or at least Birmingham, U.K. has done it for public housing.
And

Quitman, Georgia did it last year, too.

According to Larry Elliott in the Guardian, 3 October 2010,

10,000 Birmingham council homes to get solar panels:
City agrees £100m scheme, partly funded by banks and energy suppliers, to meet target for cutting carbon emissions



Plans to fit power generating solar panels to council-owned properties
in Birmingham will be pushed forward this week after the council agreed a
“green new deal” scheme covering 10,000 homes.

In the biggest proposal for retrofitting houses through an energy
efficiency upgrade yet seen in the UK, the council agreed a £100m
proposal last week designed to create jobs and meet the city’s ambitious
targets for reducing carbon emissions.

The plan – Birmingham Energy Savers – will be jointly funded by
Birmingham council and investment from energy suppliers and commercial
banks, and follows two successful pilot schemes conducted in Europe’s
biggest local authority.

Energy efficiency and solar power to create jobs!

We have local proof of concept right next door

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Renewable Energy Network at Opportunity Central

Renewable energy for jobs: that’s something that would interest
a Chamber of Commerce.

Partly due to

MAGE SOLAR at Lowndes High School



(thanks, Jerome Tucker!), the Valdosta – Lowndes County Chamber of Commerce (VLCoC) has taken an interest in renewable energy.
ReKasa Deen,

Business Development Director
,
already heads the Chamber’s

Opportunity Central
:



The Valdosta-Lowndes Chamber is positioning Metro Valdosta as Opportunity
Central with opportunities for business to grow and thrive, career
opportunities for well-educated young professionals and opportunities
for cultural interests and active lifestyles.



The key phrase I keep hearing from

VLCoC president Myrna Ballard

is

“knowledge-based businesses and jobs.”

As it says on a recent

Opportunity Central blog post:

New jobs follow bright and creative professionals…

Ms. Ballard and Ms. Deen have repeatedly said they see renewable energy
as a source of jobs for graduates of our local high schools and colleges.

What do they mean by renewable energy?

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Georgia clean energy tax credits: yes, they are available

Inquiring minds want to know if Georgia still has its energy rebate program.
The answer is yes.



The usual place to look for state tax incentives is

DSIRETM

(Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency).
That database shows for Georgia not only state
financial incentives but also a local loan program for
Athens-Clarke County
and a local rebate program for Atlanta.
There’s a thought!
Valdosta or Lowndes County could do a loan program for real clean renewable energy!
or the Valdosta-Lowndes County Industrial Authority (VLCIA) could do that
using some of its $15 million in bonds and other debt, assuming it hasn’t
already spent all of it on locking up land.

Or Georgia Power or Colquitt Electric could do that,

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