{"id":5288,"date":"2013-08-25T14:32:40","date_gmt":"2013-08-25T18:32:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/?p=5288"},"modified":"2018-03-28T08:35:25","modified_gmt":"2018-03-28T12:35:25","slug":"solar-power-will-win-like-the-internet-did","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2013\/08\/solar-power-will-win-like-the-internet-did.html","title":{"rendered":"Solar power will win like the Internet did"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\r\nRemember BITNET, FidoNet, or UUCP?\r\nNope, the Internet overtook all of those.\r\nAnd in 20 years that&#8217;s how young people will remember coal and natural gas plants,\r\nalthough the waste-disposal costs of nukes will be with us for ten thousand years.\r\nSolar power is going to overtake all other power sources within a decade.\r\nHere&#8217;s why I think that.\r\n<p>\r\nJerry Grillo quoted me in Georgia Trend July 2013,\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2013\/07\/sun-dancing-as-a-georgia-trend.html\">\r\nSun Dancing: As Georgia&#8217;s solar capacity shoots skyward, a new state utility is proposed<\/a>,\r\n<blockquote>\r\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2013\/06\/the-cloudy-day-doesnt-last-for-an-entire-month-john-s-quarterman.html\">\r\n<img decoding=\"async\" style=\"float:right;border:none;\" src=\"http:\/\/farm6.staticflickr.com\/5301\/5632134880_2f2363a7f2_m.jpg\"><\/a>\r\n&ldquo;Solar power is the fastest-growing industry in the world, and\r\nit&#8217;s growing along in the same way the Internet did,&rdquo; says\r\nJohn S. Quarterman, a Harvard-educated author and Internet pioneer\r\nwho launched the first commercial online newsletter, among other\r\nthings, and who lives in rural Lowndes County.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<p>\r\n&ldquo;Think back 20 years to 1993. How many people had heard of the\r\nInternet? And look at how far we&#8217;ve come. What I&#8217;m seeing with solar\r\nenergy is the same kind of exponential growth. It&#8217;s clean energy\r\nthat works, and it generates jobs.&rdquo;\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n<p>\r\nHere are 1992 ten-year graphs of Internet\r\ngrowth from that newsletter, Matrix News,\r\nusing<!--more--> the only data then available, Internet hosts (computers\r\nconnected to the Internet):\r\n<p style=\"text-align:center\">\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.quarterman.com\/pictures\/1991-1994--mn\/SCAN0393.html\">\r\n<img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border:none;\" src=\"http:\/\/www.quarterman.com\/pictures\/1991-1994--mn\/SCAN0393.jpg\"><\/a>\r\n<p>\r\nThose graphs show exponential growth like compound interest, for a decade.\r\nFrom them, I projected forward (see <a href=\"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2018\/03\/a-naive-projection-of-the-growth-of-the-internet.html\">forthcoming post<\/a>) to the inevitable victory of the Internet\r\nover all other communications networks.\r\n<p>\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=JUs7iG1mNjI\">\r\n<img decoding=\"async\" style=\"float:right;border:none\" src=\"http:\/\/i1.ytimg.com\/vi\/JUs7iG1mNjI\/mqdefault.jpg\"><\/a>\r\nFor how strange that must have sounded in the early 1990s, watch\r\n<a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/jCabCxtDnv8\">\r\nthis outtake from NBC&#8217;s Today Show in 1994<\/a>, (&#8220;Allison, can you explain what the Internet is?&#8221;):\r\n<p style=\"text-align:center\">\r\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/jCabCxtDnv8\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\r\n<p>\r\nBack to those 1992 Matrix News Internet growth graphs. Perhaps they may remind you, as they do me, of this graph from last year:\r\n<p style=\"text-align:center\">\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2012\/12\/what-is-moores-law-for-solar-power.html\">\r\n<img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border:none\" src=\"http:\/\/c1cleantechnicacom.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com\/files\/2011\/06\/solar-power-growing-e1307699928440.png\"><\/a>\r\n<p>\r\nOr this graph from this month:\r\n<p style=\"text-align:center\">\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2013\/08\/solar-will-overtake-everything-ferc-chair-jon-wellinghof.html\">\r\n<img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border:none;width:550px\" src=\"http:\/\/dqbasmyouzti2.cloudfront.net\/content\/images\/articles\/Cumulative_US_DG_PV_to_1H_2013.png\"><\/a>\r\n<p>\r\nAnd it&#8217;s not an accident.\r\nMany factors converged to make Internet growth take off (I wrote a book about that),\r\nbut the key underlying factor was the continually plummeting price of\r\nintegrated circuits, known as Moore&#8217;s Law.\r\nAs\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2012\/12\/what-is-moores-law-for-solar-power.html\">\r\nI&#8217;ve previously explained<\/a>,\r\nthe same thing is happening with solar photovoltaic panels:\r\n<p style=\"text-align:center\">\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.scientificamerican.com\/guest-blog\/2011\/03\/16\/smaller-cheaper-faster-does-moores-law-apply-to-solar-cells\/\">\r\n<img decoding=\"async\" style=\"border:none;\" src=\"http:\/\/blogs.scientificamerican.com\/media\/inline\/blog\/Image\/naam-solar-moore_s-law-5.jpg\"><\/a>\r\n<p>\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2013\/01\/power-source-growth-rates-like-compound-interest.html\">\r\n<img decoding=\"async\" style=\"float:right;border:none;\" src=\"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/images\/6a0120a58214e4970b017ee7f5d888970d-pi.jpg\"><\/a>\r\nThis is why I project that\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2013\/01\/power-source-growth-rates-like-compound-interest.html\">\r\nsolar power will overtake every other U.S. power source in actual deployed capacity within 9 years<\/a>,\r\nand FERC Chairman Jon Wellinghoff estimates\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2013\/08\/solar-will-overtake-everything-ferc-chair-jon-wellinghof.html\">\r\nabout ten years<\/a>.\r\nIf you aren&#8217;t familiar with these kinds of growth curves or the price drops and deployments of solar panels,\r\nlike the Today Show wasn&#8217;t familiar with the Internet in 1994,\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2013\/05\/your-jaw-will-drop-with-astonishment-at-how-fast-solar-power-will-beat-every-other-energy-source-a-stock-trader.html\">\r\nyour jaw will drop at how fast solar power will beat every other energy source<\/a>.\r\n<p>\r\n\r\nThe dark night of fossil fuels and nukes\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2013\/06\/the-cloudy-day-doesnt-last-for-an-entire-month-john-s-quarterman.html\">\r\nwon&#8217;t last forever<\/a>.\r\nThe sun will rise on this heating world.\r\nIt will even rise on our poor benighted south Georgia,\r\nas even formerly all-mighty Georgia Power fails to stop\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2013\/01\/rooftop-solar-the-most-direct-route-to-clean-energy-industries.html\">\r\nrooftop solar, the straight road to clean energy and jobs<\/a>,\r\nand\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2013\/04\/solar-could-burn-utility-business-model.html\">\r\nthe disruptive challenge that will burn the century-old baseload utility business model<\/a>.\r\n<p>\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2011\/04\/id-put-my-money-on-the-sun-and-solar-energy-thomas-alva-edison.html\">\r\n<img decoding=\"async\" style=\"float:right;border:none;\" src=\"http:\/\/upload.wikimedia.org\/wikipedia\/commons\/thumb\/c\/ce\/Ford_Edison_Firestone1.jpg\/180px-Ford_Edison_Firestone1.jpg\"><\/a>\r\nAs Thomas Edison said 82 years ago:\r\n<blockquote>\r\n<p>\r\nWe are like tenant farmers chopping down the fence around our house\r\nfor fuel when we should be using Nature&#8217;s inexhaustible sources of\r\nenergy &mdash; sun, wind and tide. &#8230; I&#8217;d put my money on the sun\r\nand solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don&#8217;t have to\r\nwait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n<p>\r\nWe don&#8217;t have to wait until then.\r\nSolar power will overtake everything within a decade.\r\nWill we let Georgia lag behind, or will we insist that\r\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2013\/07\/sos-plan-to-make-the-southeast-a-net-exporter-of-the-energy-from-solar-and-wind-john-s-quarterman-so-2013-05-22.html\">\r\nGeorgia Power and Southern Company lead<\/a> the state, the\r\nregion, the country, and the world into that bright new day?\r\n<p>\r\n -jsq\r\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Remember BITNET, FidoNet, or UUCP? Nope, the Internet overtook all of those. And in 20 years that&#8217;s how young people will remember coal and natural gas plants, although the waste-disposal costs of nukes will be with us for ten thousand years. Solar power is going to overtake all other power sources within a decade. Here&#8217;s [&hellip;]","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":true,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[216,18,132,6124,104,559,23,24,36],"tags":[2500,8753,6865,6863,6139,6864,8701,8708,788,507,8741,2498,8702,12,25,562,8737,8782,8713,637,8714,108,4775,8716],"class_list":["post-5288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-coal","category-georgia-power","category-internet-access-speed","category-natural-gas-2","category-nuclear","category-oil","category-renewable-energy","category-solar","category-wind","tag-capacity","tag-coal","tag-compound-interest","tag-deployment","tag-distributed-solar","tag-exponential","tag-georgia","tag-georgia-power","tag-growth","tag-internet","tag-internet-access-speed","tag-jon-wellinghoff","tag-lake","tag-lowndes-area-knowledge-exchange","tag-moores-law","tag-natural-gas","tag-nuclear","tag-oil","tag-renewable-energy","tag-rooftop","tag-solar","tag-southern-company","tag-thomas-alva-edison","tag-wind"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p585fK-1ni","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5288","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5288"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5288\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19890,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5288\/revisions\/19890"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}