{"id":371,"date":"2012-10-28T16:56:01","date_gmt":"2012-10-28T20:56:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2012\/10\/support-plummeting-for-charter-school-amendment.html"},"modified":"2012-10-28T16:56:01","modified_gmt":"2012-10-28T20:56:01","slug":"support-plummeting-for-charter-school-amendment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2012\/10\/support-plummeting-for-charter-school-amendment.html","title":{"rendered":"Support plummeting for charter school amendment"},"content":{"rendered":"

\nSupport for the charter school amendment,\npreviously falling, is now dropping like a rock.\nSaba Long wrote the Saporta Report 15 October 2012,\n\nLatest polls show the Charter School Amendment vote will be close<\/a>,\nbut the actual poll results, when compared to previous polls,\nincluding those before T-SPLOST lost by a landslide,\nsay Amendment 1 is going down in flames.\n<\/p>\n

\n\n\"Georgia<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

\nThat poll conducted 4 and 5 October showed 34.2% saying they would definitely\nvote no and 18.06% saying probably no.\nThat’s 52.26% No, which is far higher than\n\n26.2% only a month before.<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

\nThe pollsters, HEG-GPS, say,\n\nRe: October 4-5 Charter School Amendment Survey,<\/a>\n15.35% responded Probably Yes and only 9.30% said Definitely Yes.\nThat’s 24.62% Yes,\nfar down from the 48.3% Yes of a month before.\n<\/p>\n

\nYet only 23.12% responded Unsure,\nwhich is hardly changed from 25.5% a month before.\nIt sure looks to me like this is not just undecideds switching to No.\nIt looks like a lot of formerly Yes votes are switching to No.\n<\/p>\n

\nIt looks even worse compared to T-SPLOST.\nTwo weeks before the 31 July Primary election,\n\n\n\n11Alive reported 36% Yes, 48% No, and 16% Undecided<\/a> in a poll\nabout T-SPLOST statewide.\nThat wasn’t nearly as bad for T-SPLOST (12% spread in favor of No)\nas the October poll is for the charter school amendment (27.64% spread\nin favor of No).\nThe October 52.26% No is already almost as bad for the charter school\namendment as\n\nthe actual vote against T-SPLOST,<\/a>\nwhich was 58% No to 42% Yes in our Region 11 and also in Region 12 (Coastal).\n<\/p>\n

\nThe October poll also asked about\n\nthe preamble that is biased like the one for T-SPLOST was.<\/a>\nThe pollsters found that about a quarter (26.25%)\nof people asked about it said\nthe preamble would<\/em> cause them to change their vote.\n<\/p>\n

\nBased on the 40+% of overall respondents who received this question, we estimate\nthat the Preamble could impact the election results by up to 10 points in\nfavor of passage.\n<\/blockquote>\n

\nThat’s probably good news for the pushers of the charter amendment,\nbut the preamble propaganda is not going to be enough.\n<\/p>\n

\nLook at this from the pollsters’ writeup:\n<\/p>\n

\n3. Methodology. The poll of 1,216 likely voters was conducted October 4 and 5, 2012 by IVR\/autocall. Recipients were randomly selected and dialed statewide. The data presented is not weighted to allow for personalized weighting. The survey poll consisted of:\n