{"id":233,"date":"2012-12-28T15:15:50","date_gmt":"2012-12-28T20:15:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2012\/12\/2012-solar-deployments-driven-by-moores-law-price-reductions.html"},"modified":"2012-12-28T15:15:50","modified_gmt":"2012-12-28T20:15:50","slug":"2012-solar-deployments-driven-by-moores-law-price-reductions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2012\/12\/2012-solar-deployments-driven-by-moores-law-price-reductions.html","title":{"rendered":"2012 solar deployments driven by Moore’s Law price reductions"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\n\"Moore's<\/a>\n\nMoore’s Law for solar<\/a> is about decreasing price per Watt,\nor more Watts per dollar.\nHere’s an example of a common confusion, to think it’s about efficiency:\n<\/p>\n

\n\u201cThe curve will obviously become asymptotic at some point, ie,. the rate\nof improvement will flatten out, so we end up with a sort of squashed\n“S” shape curve, because you can’t get more than 100% efficiency \u2014\n36 watts\/m2<\/sup><\/small> or so.\u201d\n<\/blockquote>\n

\nAnd indeed efficiency probably will flatten out soon.\nBut it’s not solar\nefficiency that’s improving by Moore’s Law: it’s price per watt.\nThat can keep improving for a long time.\n<\/p>\n

\nHere’s an example of decreasing price.\nScott Detrow wrote for NPR 23 December 2012,\n\nForget Fracking: 2012 Was A Powerful Year For Renewables<\/a>,\n<\/p>\n

\n

\n\n\"Rhone<\/a>\n“Just to give you perspective,” Resh said, “in Washington, D.C.,\nwhere I live, when I installed solar on my house six years ago, the\naverage install cost was about $14 a watt. Today it’s about $4 a\nwatt.”\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\nHere’s another comparison, this one just for solar panels.\n\n\"KC<\/a>\nIn 2005 the first set of solar panels we got cost $670 each\nand produced 170 Watts DC each, or $4.94\/Watt.\nIn 2011 our second set of solar panels cost $562 each\nfor 235 Watts DC each, or $2.39\/Watt.\nThat’s more than 50% price decrease for solar panels in six years.\n(I can’t compare inverters or support structures directly,\nbecause those were sized so differently, but those have also\ncome down in price, helping lower the overall install cost).\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Year<\/th>price \/Watt<\/th>price \/panel<\/th>Watts \/panel<\/th>\nDimens.<\/th>square inches<\/th>Watts \/100 sq in.<\/th>\nModel<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n
2005<\/td>\n$4.94<\/td>\n$670<\/td>\n170W<\/td>\n50×39″<\/td>\n1950<\/td>\n8.7<\/td>\nKC 170<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2011<\/td>\n$2.39<\/td>\n$562<\/td>\n235W<\/td>\n39.1×64.6″<\/td>\n2525<\/td>\n9.3<\/td>\nSharp ND 235 QCJ<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2012<\/td>\n$1.32<\/td>\n$310<\/td>\n235W<\/td>\n39.1×64.6″<\/td>\n2525<\/td>\n9.3<\/td>\nSharp ND 235 QCJ<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\nMeanwhile, the Watts per surface area hardly changed, from about\n\n\n\n\"Sharp<\/a>\n8.7 Watts per 100 square inches to about 9.3,\nwhich is only about 7% different, so little it could be due\nto framing rather than the usable solar PV area.\nThe 2011 panels produce more Watts simply because they’re\nbigger.\nBoth models of panels (2005 and 2011) are around 15% efficiency,\naccording to their specs.\nSo it’s not efficiency that’s improved in commercial solar\npanels from 2005 to 2011: it’s price per watt.\n<\/p>\n

\nAnd those same 2011 Sharp ND 235 QCJ panels now cost $310 each at\nthe end of 2012,\nfor $1.32\/Watt, or another 45% price decrease in one year.\nThe 2005 and 2011 prices may have had some installation costs included,\nbut whichever way you look at it, solar PV price per Watt has come way down.\n<\/p>\n

\nThat’s why the NPR story starts like this:\n<\/p>\n

\n

\nNatural gas may have reshaped the domestic energy market in 2012,\nlowering energy prices and marginalizing the coal industry, but\nAmerica’s shale boom hasn’t undermined renewables.\n<\/p>\n

\nIn fact, while analysts were paying attention to fracking this year,\na record number of solar panels were being slapped on roofs \u2014\nenough to produce 3.2 gigawatts of electricity.\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\nAnd there’s a lot of room for expansion:\n<\/p>\n

\n

\nThat sounds like a lot, but solar is still providing just .05\npercent of the country’s total energy.\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\nWhich is a big reason we’ll see Moore’s Law for solar continue\nfor a long time yet:\nwe’ve hardly even reached mass market at this point,\nand as we do, economy of scale will keep pushing prices down.\n<\/p>\n

\n

\nThe bulk of solar growth is happening at businesses; companies are\ninstalling panels on roofs so that they don’t have to buy as much\nenergy from the grid. State and federal policies are making that an\neasy decision for companies. Businesses who install panels can\nqualify for grants and tax breaks, and laws in 38 states require a\ncertain amount of electricity to be generated by solar, wind and\nother renewable sources.\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\nBusinesses can often get financing for solar;\nprivate individuals (and small businesses) often can’t,\nat least not in Georgia, with that\n\n1973 Territorial Electric Service Act<\/a>\nin the way.\nImagine the solar boom in Georgia, with jobs and reduced\nelectric bills for south Georgia,\nif the legislature changes that law!\n<\/p>\n

\nMore on what underlies Moore’s Law for solar in a later post.\n<\/p>\n

\n-jsq\n<\/p>\n

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