{"id":19461,"date":"2017-12-07T17:25:07","date_gmt":"2017-12-07T22:25:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/?p=19461"},"modified":"2017-12-07T17:25:07","modified_gmt":"2017-12-07T22:25:07","slug":"the-shift-has-come-ge-siemens-massive-job-losses-as-fossil-fuels-crash-and-the-sun-rises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2017\/12\/the-shift-has-come-ge-siemens-massive-job-losses-as-fossil-fuels-crash-and-the-sun-rises.html","title":{"rendered":"The shift has come: GE, Siemens massive job losses as fossil fuels crash and the sun rises"},"content":{"rendered":"

\r\nThe carbon bubble is bursting,\r\nas jobs fly from some of the biggest companies in the world,\r\nbecause solar and wind power are taking over right now.\r\nIt’s too late to bet on the wrong nuclear horse\r\nor the wrong pipelnie snake.\r\nGet out of fossil fuels now: the sun is rising.\r\n

\r\nTiffany Hsu and Clifford Krauss,\r\nNew York Times, 7 December 2017,\r\n\r\nG.E. Cuts Jobs as It Navigates a Shifting Energy Market<\/a>,\r\n

\r\n

\r\nGeneral Electric, whose new leadership is moving to eliminate bloat\r\nand grapple with the fallout from earlier, ill-timed decisions, is\r\ntaking drastic steps to keep pace with seismic shifts in the global\r\nenergy industry.\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\r\n<\/a>\r\n
\r\nBrandon Kochkodin, Bloomberg, 7 December 2017, \r\nGE Ranks First in 2017 Downsizing After 12,000 More Job Cuts<\/a>.\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nThe company said on Thursday that it would cut 12,000 jobs in its\r\npower division, reducing the size of the unit’s work force by 18\r\npercent as part of a push to compete with international rivals in a\r\nsaturated natural gas market, adjust to “softening” in\r\nthe oil and gas sectors and stay abreast of the growing demand for\r\nrenewable energy.\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nSolar and wind energy technology is increasingly being deployed\r\n\r\n\r\naround the world, in large part because of lower production costs.\r\nRenewable energy sources are expected to attract two-thirds of\r\nglobal investment in power plants until 2040 and account for as much\r\nas 40 percent of total power generation by then, according to the\r\nInternational Energy Agency.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n

\r\nPaul Mainwood, Flotsam, 30 January 2017,\r\n\r\nA modest proposal to the International Energy Authority<\/a>,\r\n

\r\n

\r\nThe IEA’s projections for solar and wind power are notoriously way\r\nlow. However, we could do their job for them, and look at the extent\r\nto which the IEA corrects these forecasts upwards each year. We see\r\na a consistent pattern. Over the time of these reports, the\r\nrenewable forecast for key years of 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030 and\r\n2035 have been increased by an average of 9% every time a new report\r\nappears.\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nThis astonishing consistency in under-calling allows us to construct\r\na rule-of-thumb correction to the IEA’s figures. If we assume that\r\nthey will be as inaccurate in the future as they have been in the\r\npast (a big assumption, true) then we can “correct”\r\ntheir projections for the next few years. Here’s what it looks like:\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\r\n\"IEA<\/a>\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nI grant that my “correction” shouldn’t be taken too\r\nseriously — and it certainly shouldn’t be projected out too\r\nfar. But I look forward to scoring it against the IEA’s\r\nsystematically undercalled projections. It certainly looks closer to\r\nthe classic technology adoption S-curve that we typically see in\r\nindustries where unit prices are coming down exponentially. And this\r\nexponential learning curve is precisely what we currently see in the\r\nSolar PV and wind sectors, and with storage technologies (20%+\r\nlearning curve rates at present).\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nThis undercalling is familiar in legacy, dying industries: Kodak had\r\nsimilar curves drawn every year, marked “digital camera market\r\nshare”. And every year, they looked at each other and moved\r\nthe curve up a bit. Every year. Until film died.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n

\r\nAnd that’s what’s happening to fossil fuels.\r\nThey’re being overtaken by solar and wind energy.\r\n

\r\nYou know what else Mainfort’s green corrected curve looks like?\r\n

\r\nThe yellow solar and orange wind exponential growth curves\r\non\r\nmy 2013 projection<\/a>:\r\n

\r\n\r\n\"FERC<\/a>\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nI did that by simply taking actual deployed capacity figures year over year\r\nas posted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and projecting\r\nthem forward: 60.9% per year for solar, and 22.8% for wind.\r\nYou can see in the graph that nothing else was growing remotely near that fast.\r\n

\r\nShortly afterwards I discovered FERC’s Chair Jon Wellinghoff\r\n\r\nhad made almost exactly the same prediction<\/a>\r\nthat within ten years more total electricity in the U.S. would come\r\nfrom solar power than from any other source,\r\n(Well, they trumped up an alleged conflict pretty quick after that that\r\ncaused Wellinghoff to resign from FERC, but that’s another story.)\r\n

\r\nWe were both too conservative.\r\nIn 2016,\r\n\r\nnew solar electricty was up 95%, more than gas or wind<\/a>.\r\nPlus the solar industry employed 260,000 people, accounting for 2% of all new U.S. jobs in 2016.\r\nThat’s more total electricty jobs than coal, oil, and natural gas combined,\r\naccording to\r\nthe U.S. Department of Energy<\/a>.\r\n

\r\nSo the projections by me and Wellinghoff are still on target for\r\n\r\nsolar power to produce most U.S. electricty by 2023<\/a>.\r\nPlus coal and nuclear are already dropping,\r\nand natural gas isn’t increasing even as fast as in my former projection.\r\n

\r\nAnd Stanford Professor Mark Z. Jacobson\r\nand his research team\r\n\r\nhave taken such projections out to 2050<\/a>,\r\nby which time all electricity and everything else (heating, cooling,\r\ntransportation, etc.) can be powered by sun, wind, and water power\r\nand nothing else:\r\nno coal, no gas, no nuclear, no biomass.\r\n

\r\n\r\n\"600x339<\/a>\r\n
\r\nEnd-Use U.S. Power Change over Time, in\r\n\r\n100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United States<\/a>, by Mark Z. Jacobson et al., 27 May 2015\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nJust as Jacobson et al. projected, fossil fuel and nuclear power are already starting to shrink as solar and wind power relentlessly take over.\r\n

\r\nAlready a year ago,\r\nTom Randall, Bloomberg, 15 December 2016,\r\n\r\nWorld Energy Hits a Turning Point: Solar That’s Cheaper Than Wind:\r\nEmerging markets are leapfrogging the developed world thanks to cheap panels<\/a>,\r\n

\r\n\r\n<\/a>\r\n
\r\nDisclosed capex for onshore wind and PV projects in 58 non-OECD countries Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nIf solar prices beat wind, that means solar deployment will be driven even more faster than wind than it already was.\r\nWhat do you think that means for all other sources of power,\r\nwhich were already growing way slower than either?\r\n

\r\nIt’s not just the IEA that still doesn’t get it.\r\nLater in the same New York Times story:\r\n

\r\n

\r\nIn much of the world, more coal is being burned and shipped this\r\nyear compared with 2016. Still, long-term trends favor renewable\r\nsources and natural gas in developed and developing countries. Over\r\ntime, natural gas will probably be pushed from a primary role to a\r\nsupporting, balancing one as alternative energy rises in prominence.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n

\r\nChina this year canceled 103 coal plants<\/a> it ordered only a few years ago.\r\nThe amount of new coal power being built fell by 2\/3 in 2016 over the previous year<\/a>.\r\n

\r\nNatural gas is not going to be balancing: it’s going to be wiped out\r\nby clean solar and wind power.\r\ncoal, oil, and gas are the failed alternative fuels from the twentieth century.\r\nClean 21st century renewable solar and wind power are taking over now.\r\n

\r\nThe dinosaur energy companies of the last millennium are starting to wake up:\r\n

\r\n

\r\nThe shifting dynamics are roiling the huge conglomerates that serve\r\nthe industry. Siemens<\/a>, G.E.’s main rival, said last month that it\r\nwas cutting 6,900 jobs worldwide in units focused on power plant\r\ntechnology, generators and large electrical motors. In making the\r\nannouncement, Siemens said that “the power generation industry\r\nis experiencing disruption of unprecedented scope and speed.”\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n

\r\nSee that? “disruption of unprecedented scope and speed”\r\nUnprecedented unless you remember\r\ntypewriters as personal computers took over,\r\nor Kodak as digital cameras took over,\r\nor AT&T Longlines as the Internet took over,\r\nor telephone booths as mobile phones took over,\r\nor flip phones as smart phones took over.\r\nSure, exponential growth is not what we’re used to,\r\nbecause most things don’t grow like that: most things\r\ngrow linearly, like those IEA projections.\r\nBut some things do grow exponentially, and we’ve all lived through\r\nat least one of them; most of us have one of them in our pocket right now,\r\nor are reading this story on it.\r\n

\r\nSolar and wind power\r\n\r\nwill win like the Internet did<\/a>,\r\neliminating all rivals, going from rare to everywhere in a decade,\r\nand then pervading everything in another decade.\r\n

\r\nThe failure of fossil fuels is not just in the U.S.\r\nMost of Siemens job losses are in Germany and the rest of Europe.\r\n

\r\nThat’s what happens when you bet on the wrong horse.\r\n

\r\nYet FPL and Duke keep betting on that wrong black snake of a Sabal Trail\r\nfracked methane pipeline gouging through Alabama and north Florida\r\nto un-needed gas power plants and LNG export operations in south Florida.\r\nWhat profit will actually come from LNG export to Europe when solar and wind\r\npower are already taking over there,\r\nor to Asia when China is leading the world in solar power?\r\nRemember GE’s job cuts are largely because of trying to compete with\r\n“international rivals in a\r\nsaturated natural gas market”.\r\nAs in nobody needs any more natural gas.\r\n

\r\nDuke is smart enough that it has also started\r\nmassive solar power deployment in the Sunshine State<\/a>.\r\nMaybe Duke will be first to abandon Sabal Trail.\r\nThere’s even some evidence that\r\nmaybe it already has<\/a>.\r\n

\r\nTom Fanning, CEO of Southern Company, said \r\nOh, solar panels? Oh, heck yeah!<\/a>\r\nat the SO May 2017 Stockholder meeting, yet\r\n\r\nhe continues SO’s Big Bet on the Plant Vogtle nuclear boondoggle<\/a>,\r\nalready gone bad by years and billions of dollars,\r\nwhile also buying up pipeline companies.\r\n

\r\nYou’re all going to lose, fossil fuel gamblers.\r\nGet out now, while you stil can.\r\n

\r\n\r\n<\/a>\r\nBefore the carbon bubble pops in the renewable energy sunrise.\r\n

\r\n -jsq\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nInvestigative reporting costs money, for open records requests, copying, web hosting, gasoline, and cameras, and with sufficient funds we can pay students to do further research. You can donate to LAKE today<\/a>!<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The carbon bubble is bursting, as jobs fly from some of the biggest companies in the world, because solar and wind power are taking over right now. It’s too late to bet on the wrong nuclear horse or the wrong pipelnie snake. Get out of fossil fuels now: the sun is rising. Tiffany Hsu and […]","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[216,14,18,19,6124,24,36],"tags":[8759,398,8753,143,3031,7360,8751,5635,1763,704,10080,8701,8708,8781,8709,507,2498,8702,9608,4202,12,7,2928,562,7134,10081,6597,10083,10079,8714,108,6339,10082,6,8716],"class_list":["post-19461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-coal","category-economy","category-georgia-power","category-history","category-natural-gas-2","category-solar","category-wind","tag-alabama","tag-china","tag-coal","tag-duke-energy","tag-europe","tag-export","tag-florida","tag-florida-power-light","tag-fpl","tag-ge","tag-general-electricty","tag-georgia","tag-georgia-power","tag-germany","tag-history","tag-internet","tag-jon-wellinghoff","tag-lake","tag-liquid-natural-gas","tag-lng","tag-lowndes-area-knowledge-exchange","tag-lowndes-county","tag-market","tag-natural-gas","tag-nextera-energy","tag-rare","tag-sabal-trail-transmission","tag-saturated","tag-siemens","tag-solar","tag-southern-company","tag-tom-fanning","tag-ubiquitous","tag-valdosta","tag-wind"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p585fK-53T","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19461","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19461"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19461\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19467,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19461\/revisions\/19467"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19461"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19461"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19461"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}