\nSource: Data derived from Ventyx Global LLC, Velocity Suite.\n
\nGrowth rates computed by jsq for LAKE www.l-a-k-e.org 24 January 2013.\n<\/p>\n
\nLet’s look what happens if we assume 30% growth in solar power deployed per year:\n<\/p>\n
\n\n \nAt 30% annual growth,\nwe’re up to solar as 50% of all generation\nwithin\n\n\ntwenty years.\nThat’s impressive, but still too slow to, for example,\naffect climate change fast enough to make much difference.\n<\/p>\n \nBut 30% isn’t actually the growth rate.\n30% is the increase<\/em> in added solar capacity\nbetween 2011 and 2012.\nSo 30% is actually the acceleration<\/em> in growth, compared to linear growth.\nBut solar power growth is not linear; we’re not adding the same number of solar MW\neach year: we’re adding an increasing amount each year,\n30% more added in 2012 than was added in 2011.\nThat’s not linear growth: that’s compound growth, like money in the bank with compound interest.\nVery large interest.<\/p>\n \nWhat’s the real growth rate?\nSince 1.476 gigawatts of solar power were added in 2012,\nfor a total of 3.9 GW, the total in 2011 must have been 3.9 – 1.476 = 2.424 GW.\nSo the growth rate from 2011 to 2012 was 3.9\/2.424 = 1.6089, or about 61%.\n\n \nHowever, that middle curve is only realistic in the\ncurrent sceptical political and financial climate for solar power.\nWhat if we added Feed-In Tariffs, or a carbon tax?\nThat solar power growth rate would go up.\n<\/p>\n \nThe third curve on the graph shows what happens with\n100% annual growth rate.\nWe’d break 20% in six years from now\nand we’d have enough solar power to run the whole country\nin less than ten years.\n<\/p>\n \nYou may say that’s silly: that graph shows growth\nas a percentage of total power generated, and is drawn\nlike everything but solar is standing still.\nWell, look at the growth rates in the table!\nThe only thing other than solar cracking 5% growth is…\nwind power.\nWhich means even at the 65% solar growth rate\nwe can power the country mostly on wind and solar\nin less than a decade if we want to.\nAnd long before then we can start shutting down\nnot just coal and nuclear plants, but also natural gas plants.\n<\/p>\n \nNow obviously growth rates like that have to slow down eventually,\nbecause otherwise we end up generating more than 100%\nand customers will stop buying more.\nHowever, with\n\nMoore’s Law for solar<\/a> there’s no reason\nwe can’t do 65% for quite some time.\nOr faster.\nAnd there are lots of countries in the world beyond the U.S.\n<\/p>\n \nWell, no reason except financing and legal obstacles like\n\nGeorgia’s 1973 Territorial Electric Service Act.<\/a>\nThe GA legislature\nis in session and could fix that last right now.\nThat would help with financing.\nSo would a Feed-In Tariff or a carbon tax.\n\n \nI know some people will say we shouldn’t subsidize any new sources\nof energy, but many of them are the same people who are backing nuclear\nwith\n\nits huge subsidies<\/a>, and the rest could do more to stop the\nridiculous subsidies fossil fuel companies still get even though\nthey are now among the most profitable companies in the history of the planet.\nGovernments have always subsidized new sources of energy,\nand solar and wind should be no exceptions.\nBut the first thing the Georgia government could do is stop\ngetting in the way:\n\nfix that 1973 law.<\/a>\n<\/p>\n \n-jsq\n<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Some nuclear backers only want to look at the next table in that FERC report, Office of Energy Projects Energy Infrastructure Update For December 2012, which shows solar energy as 0.34% of total U.S. energy production, and then they stop thinking. But what about that 30% increase in solar power deployed between 2011 and 2012? […]","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[216,14,2,104,559,21,22,23,24,55,36],"tags":[8753,787,8704,786,785,8701,8699,788,789,8702,12,7,562,8737,8782,8711,8712,8713,8714,6,8727,8716],"class_list":["post-174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-coal","category-economy","category-government","category-nuclear","category-oil","category-planning","category-politics","category-renewable-energy","category-solar","category-water","category-wind","tag-coal","tag-compound","tag-economy","tag-federal-energy-regulatory-commission","tag-ferc","tag-georgia","tag-government","tag-growth","tag-interest","tag-lake","tag-lowndes-area-knowledge-exchange","tag-lowndes-county","tag-natural-gas","tag-nuclear","tag-oil","tag-planning","tag-politics","tag-renewable-energy","tag-solar","tag-valdosta","tag-water","tag-wind"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p585fK-2O","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=174"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/174\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=174"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=174"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=174"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![\"Solar](\"\/blog\/images\/6a0120a58214e4970b017ee7df875c970d-pi.jpg\")
<\/a>\n<\/p>\n![](\"http:\/\/c1cleantechnicacom.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com\/files\/2011\/06\/solar-power-growing-e1307699928440.png\")
<\/a>\nWhich is quite similar to the\n\n65% average annual growth rate from\n2005 to 2010 observed by Paula Mintz of Navigant.<\/a>\nThat’s the realistic middle curve on the graph:\n65% annual growth.\n<\/p>\n![](\"http:\/\/upload.wikimedia.org\/wikipedia\/commons\/thumb\/archive\/9\/97\/20100708154731%21GEFA_color.jpg\/120px-GEFA_color.jpg\")
<\/a>\nOr the legislature could just fully fund GEFA’s 35% state renewable\nenergy tax credit.\nAnd double the pot like it did \nyear before last.<\/a>\n<\/p>\n