{"id":161,"date":"2013-01-29T07:49:15","date_gmt":"2013-01-29T12:49:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2013\/01\/power-source-growth-rates-like-compound-interest.html"},"modified":"2013-01-29T07:49:15","modified_gmt":"2013-01-29T12:49:15","slug":"power-source-growth-rates-like-compound-interest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2013\/01\/power-source-growth-rates-like-compound-interest.html","title":{"rendered":"Power source growth rates like compound interest"},"content":{"rendered":"

\nWhat if instead of \nprojecting percentages<\/a>, we project gigawatts from\nFERC’s December 2012 Installed Operating Generating Capacity<\/a> table?\nSolar and wind still win in less than a decade.\n<\/p>\n

\n\n\"FERC<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

\nIgnore the fastest-growing curve for a moment; I added that.\nAll the other curves start with the December 2012 gigawatts\nfor each power source in the FERC table, and an annual compound\ngrowth rate computed by comparing that installed operating capacity\nto the capacity added in 2012 for that power source.\nThat compound annual growth rate for solar is 60.9% and for wind is 22.8%.\nNothing else comes close.\n<\/p>\n

\nSolar passes coal in about 8 years, wind in about 9, and natural gas in\nabout\n\n\na decade.\nThat’s at the 60.9% rate, which is close to the\n\n<\/a>\n65% rate observed for compound annual growth in solar deployments\nfor the past decade.<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

\nWhat if we can push the solar growth rate faster,\nthrough some combination of Feed-In Tariffs, a carbon tax, rebates, or\n\nfully funding tax credits<\/a>?\nAnd how about we\n\nfix that antiquated 1973 Georgia law<\/a>\nthat impedes private financing and investment for solar power in Georgia?\n<\/p>\n

\nWith some such combination, we could probably drive the solar compound\ngrowth rate up to 100% a year.\nThat would make solar pass wind in 6 years, coal in 7, and natural gas in\nless than a year after that.\n<\/p>\n

\nWith either projection, solar and wind would provide most electricity\nin the U.S. in less than a decade.\nThe faster the solar compound growth rate, the sooner that happens.\n<\/p>\n

\n\n<\/a>\nAnd what if we also push up the wind compound annual growth rate?\nThen it happens even faster.\nFaster wind deployment would be pretty easy.\nTEPCO already has\n\na wind turbine design that can withstand hurricanes<\/a>\nWe could use that to\n\ndeploy wind off the Georgia coast.<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

\nSpeaking of TEPCO, owner of the world’s worst nuclear disaster at Fukushima,\nnuclear remains down in the noise in this graph because its growth rate\nis less than a percent per year.\n<\/p>\n

\nNow this graph shows deliberately naive projections to illustrate\nthe point of compound growth rates.\nObviously solar and wind growth rates have to slow at some point,\nif only because eventually they can generate more energy than anybody\nwants to use.\n\n<\/a>\nBut before that happens,\nif solar and wind continue to grow at a compound rate for some years,\nas solar\n\nMoore’s Law for solar<\/a> indicates solar can,\n\nnatural gas and coal will be used less<\/a>, not more, because\nnew coal or natural gas generation will be priced out of the\nmarket as\n\nsolar prices continue to drop<\/a>\nand\n\nthe carbon bubble pops.<\/a>\nSo the time until solar and wind are the predominant sources\nof electric power in the U.S. could be even shorter\nthan the graph indicates.\n<\/p>\n

\nMeanwhile, \neven GE is apparently abandoning nuclear power<\/a>.\nIt doesn’t matter how good a reactor GE designs if\n\n<\/a>\n\nthe concrete platform or containment breaks<\/a>.\nNuclear power is good for\nwars for uranium.<\/a>\nSolar power, not so much.\n<\/p>\n

\nPresident Obama was not accurate when he said this in his second inaugural:\n<\/p>\n

\n

\nThe path towards sustainable energy sources will be long and sometimes\ndifficult.\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\nIf we stop pretending nuclear or natural gas or “clean coal” are sustainable\nenergy sources, it doesn’t have to be long and it doesn’t have to be difficult.\nEspecially if we do the next thing he said:\n<\/p>\n

\n

\nBut America cannot resist this transition; we must lead it. We\ncannot cede to other nations the technology that will power new jobs\nand new industries\u2014we must claim its promise. That is how we\nwill maintain our economic vitality and our national\ntreasure\u2014our forests and waterways; our croplands and\nsnowcapped peaks. That is how we will preserve our planet, commanded\nto our care by God. That’s what will lend meaning to the creed our\nfathers once declared.\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\nWe know how to generate jobs and energy independence for the U.S.\nand the world without wars for fuel or pipelines across countries.\nSolar and wind power are the way.\n<\/p>\n

\n\n<\/a>\nThis is what\n\nthe overwhelming majority of Americans want, according to a poll this month:<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

\n

\n86 percent of Americans want leadership on shifting from coal and nuclear\nenergy to wind and solar. Support for this approach exists across party\nlines, including 72 percent of Republicans, 83 percent of Independents,\nand 97 percent of Democrats.\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\n\n<\/a>\nYou can\n\nhelp Sierra Club send a message to Georgia Power CEO Paul Bowers:<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

\nwe want to keep Georgia Jobs by investing in homegrown clean energy and\nenergy efficiency to power our homes and businesses.\n<\/blockquote>\n

\nLet’s get on with it!\n<\/p>\n

\n-jsq\n<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"What if instead of projecting percentages, we project gigawatts from FERC’s December 2012 Installed Operating Generating Capacity table? Solar and wind still win in less than a decade. Ignore the fastest-growing curve for a moment; I added that. All the other curves start with the December 2012 gigawatts for each power source in the FERC […]","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[216,14,2,104,559,21,22,23,24,55,36],"tags":[8753,787,8704,786,785,8701,8699,788,789,8702,12,7,562,8737,8782,8711,107,8712,8713,8714,108,166,6,8727,8716],"class_list":["post-161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-coal","category-economy","category-government","category-nuclear","category-oil","category-planning","category-politics","category-renewable-energy","category-solar","category-water","category-wind","tag-coal","tag-compound","tag-economy","tag-federal-energy-regulatory-commission","tag-ferc","tag-georgia","tag-government","tag-growth","tag-interest","tag-lake","tag-lowndes-area-knowledge-exchange","tag-lowndes-county","tag-natural-gas","tag-nuclear","tag-oil","tag-planning","tag-plant-vogtle","tag-politics","tag-renewable-energy","tag-solar","tag-southern-company","tag-tepco","tag-valdosta","tag-water","tag-wind"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p585fK-2B","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=161"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18112,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/161\/revisions\/18112"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=161"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}