\ntl;dr: Moore’s Law is an analogy. As an analogy, it works. And \n \nRamez Naam, on his blog, April 2015, \n[This is an update of a post I first wrote in March of 2011, \n… actual progress in solar power module prices has been dramatically faster than I projected<\/strong>.<\/p>\n \nIn the 2011 piece, the graphs project that in 2015, solar modules \nWe have 50 cent per watt solar module prices today<\/strong>. Solar module \nSay what you will about the analogy of Solar Moore’s Law — the \nAnd yes, I know the mechanisms are not exactly the same as Moore’s Law for computer chips; that’s why it’s an analogy.<\/p>\n \nAn analogy demonstrating what exponential growth can do, \nOne year only a few had even heard of them. \nJust like Ramez Naam observes that the prices driving that solar deployment are dropping faster than he predicted.<\/p>\n \nSolar power will win like the Internet did<\/a>. \nNot just solar powering the current electrical grid, either. \n \nLet’s go straight to cleaner, safer, faster, cheaper, sun, wind, and water power.<\/p>\n \nThe sun is rising!<\/p>\n \n -jsq<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" More confirmation that solar power is winning so there’s no excuse for any new pipelines. tl;dr: Moore’s Law is an analogy. As an analogy, it works. And progress is happening far faster than I projected in my ‘solar Moore’s Law’ piece of 2011.] Ramez Naam, on his blog, April 2015, Is Moore’s Law Really a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[47,216,14,6124,559,6687,24],"tags":[8719,8753,8704,8701,8702,12,7,25,562,8782,6076,8697,6597,8714,6966,6],"class_list":["post-14273","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-climate-change","category-coal","category-economy","category-natural-gas-2","category-oil","category-pipeline-2","category-solar","tag-climate-change","tag-coal","tag-economy","tag-georgia","tag-lake","tag-lowndes-area-knowledge-exchange","tag-lowndes-county","tag-moores-law","tag-natural-gas","tag-oil","tag-pipeline","tag-ramez-naam","tag-sabal-trail-transmission","tag-solar","tag-spectra-energy","tag-valdosta"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14273","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14273"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14273\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14278,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14273\/revisions\/14278"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14273"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14273"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14273"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nprogress is happening far faster<\/strong> than I projected in my ‘solar
\nMoore’s Law’ piece of 2011.]\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\n![](\"http:\/\/rameznaam.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/Solar-Module-Price-1977-2013-800x602.jpg\")
<\/a>\n<\/p>\n
\n
\nIs Moore’s Law Really a Fair Comparison for Solar?<\/a><\/p>\n\n
\nresponding to criticism of the analogy of Moore’s Law for solar
\npower. Updating in April 2015, on the 50th Anniversary of Moore’s
\nLaw, in light of renewed conversation on this topic….\n<\/p>\n
\nwould cost just under $2 \/ watt. We’d reach 50 cents per watt in
\nmodule price around 2030.\n<\/p>\n
\nprices are 15 years ahead of where those (at the time, optimistic)
\nprojections in 2011 placed them.\n<\/p>\n
\nnumerical projections of price that I presented in 2011 were too
\nconservative. Price reduction has happened far faster than the
\nhistorical norm.\n<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\n
\nas I pointed out in 2012<\/a>:
\ncomputers, mobile phones, the Internet itself, and smart phones
\nall deployed on exponential curves.<\/p>\n
\nTen years later everybody had them.
\n
\n
\n![](\"https:\/\/farm9.staticflickr.com\/8226\/8421700685_a46c93cf27_n.jpg\")
<\/a>
\nAnd that ten years for solar power started in 2013, with the
\npredictions by former FERC Chair Jon Wellinghoff and me that
\nwithin a decade more U.S. electric energy will come from solar power
\nthan any other source.
\nThat’s by 2023.
\nAnd according to eia and FERC figures,
\n
\nsolar deployment is actually going faster than we predicted<\/a>.<\/p>\n
\nNow that a governor who took campaign funds from six different pipeline companies
\nhas signed a solar financing bill passed unanimously by both houses of the
\nmost corruption-prone legislature, helping make that state, Georgia,
\nthe fastest-growing solar market in the country,
\nwhile coal is crashing, and new pipelines are running into opposition everywhere,
\nit’s becoming obvious to everyone that
\n
\nsolar power will win<\/a>.
\nAfter all,
\n
\nfixing climate change is profitable<\/a>,
\nand solar power is the fastest way to get going on that path.<\/p>\n
\nMark Z. Jacobson’s peer-reviewed Stanford research has laid out a plan for
\n
\nsun, wind, and water power for everything<\/a> from cars to airplanes by 2050,
\nwith 25% by 2025, 80% by 2030, and 90% by 2035.<\/p>\n
\n![](\"http:\/\/i0.wp.com\/farm6.staticflickr.com\/5301\/5632134880_2f2363a7f2_m.jpg?zoom=1.5&w=625\")
<\/a>
\nThere is no longer any excuse for building more 20th century pipelines.
\nLet’s stop Sabal Trail<\/a>
\nand all its kin before they do any more damage.<\/p>\n