{"id":13489,"date":"2015-06-24T08:07:05","date_gmt":"2015-06-24T12:07:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/?p=13489"},"modified":"2015-06-24T08:29:54","modified_gmt":"2015-06-24T12:29:54","slug":"jimmy-carters-dream-of-a-solar-powered-world-is-coming-true-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.l-a-k-e.org\/blog\/2015\/06\/jimmy-carters-dream-of-a-solar-powered-world-is-coming-true-now.html","title":{"rendered":"Jimmy Carter’s dream of a solar-powered world is coming true now"},"content":{"rendered":"

\r\nU.S. president Jimmy Carter had a dream,\r\n\r\n\"300x300<\/a>\r\nthirty six years before Pope Francis spelled out why we all need to escape a dark hot nightmare<\/a>,\r\nand Jimmy Carter’s sunny dream is now coming true.\r\n

\r\n

\r\nToday, in directly harnessing the power of the Sun, we’re taking the\r\nenergy that God gave us, the most renewable energy that we will ever\r\nsee, and using it to replace our dwindling supplies of fossil fuels.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\"600x600<\/a>\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nNowadays the problem is too much<\/em> fossil fuel supply,\r\ndue to tar sands and fracking, both massively destructive in extraction,\r\npipelines, and export, and if burnt enough to cook the world in climate change.\r\n

\r\nWay back then part of the solution was already economically viable.\r\nPresident Jimmy Carter, 20 June 1979,\r\n\r\nSolar Energy Remarks Announcing Administration Proposals<\/a>,\r\n

\r\n

\r\nThere is no longer any question that solar energy is both feasible\r\nand also cost-effective. In those homes now using electricity, a\r\ntypical solar hot water heating system, such as the one behind me,\r\ncan pay for itself in 7 to 10 years. As energy costs increase, which\r\nis an almost inevitable prospect, that period for paying for this\r\ninvestment will be substantially reduced. Solar energy will not\r\npollute our air or water. We will not run short of it. No one can\r\never embargo the Sun or interrupt its delivery to us. But we must\r\nwork together to turn our vision and our dream into a solar reality.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n

\r\nJimmy Carter concentrated on solar hot water because in 1979 photovoltaic\r\nsolar power for electricity cost about $40.00 per watt.\r\nEven that was already down 48% from $76.67\/watt two years before.\r\nAnd that trend continued, down to $0.74\/watt in 2013.\r\nThat’s right: solar PV cost 100 times less in 2013 than in 1977,\r\nas you can see in this graph by Bloomberg New Energy Finance\r\nvia Zachary Shahan, Clean Technica, 24 May 2013,\r\n\r\nSolar Power’s Massive Price Drop (Graph)<\/a>,\r\n

\r\n\r\n<\/a>\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nAt those kinds of prices solar PV installations now also pay for themselves\r\nin 7-10 years.\r\nThe City of Valdosta expects their most recent megawatt of solar panels\r\nat the Mud Creek Wastewater Treatment Plant to pay off in 5 years.\r\n

\r\nAnd prices keep dropping, not just for the bare panels: also for\r\ncomplete installations.\r\nMike Munsell, Greentech Solar, 13 March 2015,\r\n\r\nSolar PV Pricing Continues to Fall During a Record-Breaking 2014:\r\n“Total installation costs for utility and large commercial systems,” writes GTM Research Director MJ Shiao, “are now below 2011 module costs.”<\/a>\r\n

\r\n\r\n<\/a>\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nSolar prices will keep dropping.\r\nGiles Parkinson, Clean Technica, 29 January 2015,\r\n\r\nSolar Costs Will Fall Another 40% In 2 Years. Here’s Why.<\/a>\r\n

\r\n\r\n<\/a>\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\n

\r\nIt’s been one of the big themes at the World Energy Future\r\nConference here in Abu Dhabi. Solar, and other technologies such as\r\nwind power, are no longer more expensive than traditional fossil\r\nfuels in many parts of the world. Indeed, they are cheaper.\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nThe big oil and gas players recognise this. Dr Adaba Sultan Ahmed al\r\nJabber, the minister of state of the United Arab Emirates, said at\r\nthe lavish opening on Monday that the cost of solar was competing\r\nwith traditional sources of energy, and would not be derailed by the\r\nplunge in the oil price.\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nHe saw that as an opportunity to call for the removal of fossil fuel\r\nsubsidies, which he noted outstripped those of renewables by a\r\nfactor of 5:1 in 2013. “If we have courage and opportunity to\r\nsaying yes to thinking differently, could deliver better\r\nfuture,” he told the conference. This from a country which is\r\nin the top eight oil producers in the world, and the top seven in\r\ngas reserves.\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nA day earlier, the International Renewable Energy predicted that\r\nsolar costs would fall substantially in coming years<\/a>, underlying its\r\ncompetitiveness with fossil fuels. If government policy makers did\r\nnot understand this, IRENA said, then they risked making bad\r\ndecisions about their energy future.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n

\r\nThese popularizations are coming from Clean Technica and \r\nGreenTech Solar, but their sources are normally conservative\r\nif not reactionary finance firms like Bloomberg and Deutsche Bank\r\nand oil producers such as Abu Dhabi.\r\n

\r\nMost governments and people don’t understand exponentially changing anything,\r\nso here’s another graph.\r\nBrian McConnell, Medium.com, 23 April 2013,\r\n\r\na Disruptive Technology Looks Like<\/a>.\r\n

\r\n\r\n<\/a>\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\n

\r\nA picture is worth a thousand words. The graph above compares the\r\nprice history of solar energy to conventional energy sources. This\r\nis what a disruptive technology looks like. While conventional\r\nenergy prices remained pretty flat in inflation adjusted terms, the\r\ncost of solar is dropping,fast, and is likely to continue doing so\r\nas technology and manufacturing processes improve.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n

\r\nThat’s right: in 2013, solar electricity was already cheaper than retail\r\nelectricity average in the U.S.\r\nAnd at the rate it’s dropping, by 2015 solar electricity is already below\r\ncrude oil and natural gas energy prices.\r\nAnd it’s not fancy new kinds of solar panels or batteries driving this\r\nhistorical drop; it’s production improvements and economies of scale:\r\n

\r\n

\r\nOn average, solar power improves 14% per year in terms of energy\r\nproduction per dollar invested. Technological improvements are the\r\nprimary driver of this trend, as manufacturers learn to produce\r\npanels using less energy and raw materials (the basic physics of\r\nsolar panels are a century old), and to make systems easier to\r\ninstall.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n

\r\nOf course, add to that batteries and even more efficient solar panels\r\nand the price improvements and deployments will go even faster.\r\nBut we don’t even need those for solar power to take over the world.\r\n

\r\n

\r\nWhile solar currently accounts for less than 1% of the energy\r\nsupply, it is an exponentially improving technology, both in terms\r\nof price (14%\/year) and pace of construction (60%\/year). Already it\r\nis approaching parity with other energy sources in the Western US.\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n

\r\n\r\n<\/a>\r\nTwo years later, parity is here now.\r\nLast year \r\nBloomberg noticed solar is now cheaper than all other forms of energy<\/a>,\r\nconfirming McConnell’s calculations.\r\n

\r\nAnd those prices drive that 60% annual increase in solar deployments.\r\nWhich is more than doubling every year,\r\n\r\nas confirmed by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (eia)<\/a>.\r\nWhich is exactly what\r\n\r\nformer FERC Chair Jon Wellinghoff predicted in 2013<\/a>.\r\nWellinghoff projected forward, predicting that within ten years\r\nsolar would overtake wind in total deployments and more U.S. power\r\nwould come from solar than anything else.\r\nWhich is what I had predicted a few months earlier, with this graph,\r\nprojecting from FERC’s own records:\r\n

\r\n\r\n<\/a>\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nThe sunny gold line at 60.9%\/year passes wind in 2022 and natural gas in 2023.\r\nThe real future is somewhere between that and the skyrocketing blue 100%\/year line.\r\n

\r\nOf course, that kind of growth in solar (and wind) power will affect\r\nall the other power sources.\r\nAlready more nuclear power units are closing than are being built.\r\nOwen Davis, International Business Times, 10 March 2015,\r\n\r\nNearly Every Major Bank Has Ditched Mountaintop Coal Mining<\/a>.\r\nThe\r\n\r\nLNG export boom is going bust<\/a>.\r\nEven \r\n

\r\nThe solar future is so bright it’s\r\n\r\nturned even Al Gore into an optimist<\/a>:\r\n

\r\n

\r\n“We’re going to win this.\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\n“The only question is how long it takes.”\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n

\r\nSure, some pedants note solar power has its own environmental\r\ndrawbacks, and it does<\/a>, although that is fixable and\r\nthe fixes are being independently monitored<\/a>.\r\nBut compared to mountaintop removal, fracking, or gouging pipelines\r\nthrough fields, forests, and wetlands and under rivers?\r\nCompared to every thermal power generation (fossil fuels or nuclear)\r\nrequiring massive amounts of water for cooling?\r\nCompared to leaks, explosions, and poisoned rivers and the Gulf of Mexico?\r\nThere is no comparison: solar power is far cleaner and far less environmentally destructive and far less hazardous.\r\n

\r\nBack to McConnell, who notes you ain’t seen nothin’ yet:\r\n

\r\n

\r\nAssuming this trend continues for another 10 to 20 years, and\r\nthere’s no reason not to, solar power will become 5 to 10 times more\r\ncost effective than it is today. This raises an interesting\r\nquestion. What happens if solar becomes an order of magnitude\r\ncheaper than other sources of power?\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nThis is the nature of disruptive technology. It represents such an\r\nimprovement that it renders existing industries obsolete. We saw\r\nwaves of disruption take place as the Internet upended entire\r\nindustries. Expect to see a lot of this in the coming years.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n

\r\nWe’re talking about disruptive as in computers, smartphones, and the Internet.\r\nJeremy Reimer, Ars Technica, 14 August 2012, \r\nFrom Altair to iPad: 35 years of personal computer market share<\/a>.\r\n

\r\n\r\n<\/a>\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nAs I wrote two years ago, \r\nSolar power will win like the Internet did<\/a>.\r\nFor the same reasons, and so fast most people don’t yet realize what’s happening.\r\n

\r\nBack in 1979 Jimmy Carter cited yet another precedent:\r\n

\r\n

\r\nIn 1891, during the Presidency of William Henry Harrison [Benjamin\r\nHarrison], electric lights were first installed in the White House,\r\nthe residence of the leaders of our country. At that time,\r\ncommercial electricity was not economically feasible, but President\r\nHarrison wanted to affirm his confidence in the technological\r\ncapability of our country.\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nThis afternoon, I’ve arranged for this ceremony to be illuminated by\r\nsolar power. [Laughter] And I think we’ve done an excellent job in\r\nutilizing that tremendous, sometimes untapped resource.\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\r\nUnfortunately, in the last few years, that confidence that President\r\nHarrison expressed in our Nation’s ability to meet new challenges\r\nhas not always been evident. Lately, as we have begun to see the\r\nfirst signs of inevitable shortages of fossil fuels, our country has\r\nbeen disconcerted, sometimes discouraged. Some few Americans have\r\nalmost reached a state of panic.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n

\r\nNow, partly because\r\nPope Francis spelled it out for them<\/a>,\r\npeople are finally starting to panic about climate change.\r\nYes, Virginia, we are really risking cooking our world,\r\nwith the poorest people taking most of the damage and the quickest, until\r\n90% of species die off and human civilization is no longer possible.\r\nThe stakes are that high.\r\n

\r\nAround here people are starting to notice 100 degree days in June.\r\n\r\n<\/a>\r\n2015 is already the hottest year ever.\r\nI’ve already been through this in Texas. 100 degrees won’t be just\r\na few days if this goes on: it will be so many days crops will fail.\r\nAnd that’s just the start of it.\r\nIf we burn even a fraction of what the fossil fuel industry wants\r\nto frack out of the ground, by the end of this century those of you\r\nstill around won’t recognize this planet.\r\n

\r\nBut it doesn’t have to be like that.\r\nPeople think fossil fuel’s hot grip on our political processes\r\nis so tight we can’t break it.\r\nBut when even\r\n\r\na Georgia governor who took campaign funds from six pipeline companies<\/a>\r\ncan sign a solar financing law passed unanimously by both houses of\r\nthe most corruption-prone state legislature,\r\nafter squelching similar bills for a decade,\r\nthat fossil fuel grip is breaking just like big coal’s\r\ngrip on mountaintops.\r\nThat same governor even\r\n\r\nopposed Kinder Morgan’s Palmetto Project petroleum products pipeline<\/a>\r\nand\r\n\r\nthe Georgia Department of Transportation denied a permit<\/a>.\r\nNow we need to get Governor Deal and the state of Georgia\r\n\r\nto oppose and deny Spectra Energy’s Sabal Trail fracked methane pipeline<\/a>.\r\n

\r\nSolar power is winning and fossil fuels are losing their grip\r\nfor the same reason they got that grip in the first place:\r\nprofit.\r\nBig companies like Georgia Power and its parent Southern Company\r\nhave recognized there’s a market in solar power and they’re starting\r\nto sell it.\r\nWith those constantly reducing prices, such companies will get sucked\r\ninto the solar revolution pretty quick, and we can start betting on\r\nwhen even Southern Company will admit their Plant Vogtle nukes\r\nand Plant Kemper “clean coal” projects are irrevelant dinosaurs\r\nfaced with thousands of scampering solar power projects.\r\n

\r\nThanks to Stanford Prof. Mark Z. Jacobson and his engineers,\r\nwe know\r\n\r\nhow to convert the U.S. to 100% clean, renewable energy by 2050<\/a>.\r\nThat’s including not only electricity generation and use for current\r\npurposes.\r\nThat’s including transportation and all<\/em> energy uses,\r\nall powered by sun, wind, and water, with no fossil fuels, biomass, or nuclear\r\nat all.\r\nSure, 2050 is a bit farther out than 2023, because converting all automobiles,\r\ntrucks, and airplanes to electric vehicles or powered by solar-generated\r\nclean fuels will take a bit longer than just generating electricity.\r\n

\r\n

\r\nThe report lays out individual roadmaps for each state to achieve an\r\n80 percent transition by 2030, and a full conversion by 2050.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n

\r\nAnd that’s fast enough to seriously slow down and eventually reverse climate change.\r\nSure, there will still be substantial damage to crops, some\r\nplant and animal species will be lost, and unfortunately\r\nmany people will get displaced by rising seas, desertification, and storms.\r\nBut maybe Miami won’t drown and Valdosta won’t have beachfront property.\r\n

\r\nThere’s even some chance that solar power will break the grip\r\nof big companies on the political process, because solar power\r\n(and to a lesser extent wind) is by its nature distributed.\r\nSure, big utilities like to build big solar plants, because\r\nthose resemble the capacity baseload plants they’re used to.\r\nBut solar panels are also going on rooftops and soon every\r\nparking lot<\/a>, school<\/a>, government building<\/a>, airport<\/a>, roadway<\/a>, etc.\r\n

\r\n\r\n<\/a>\r\nJimmy Carter’s dream is happening now.\r\nHe’s only 90 years old, and it’s only eight more years until\r\nsolar power overtakes everything.\r\nJimmy Carter will be 98 in 2023.\r\nHe may live to see his dream realized.\r\nThe sun is rising.\r\n

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