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<\/a>\r\n\r\n“As a substitute for oil, coal, and nuclear energy, the sun can\r\nreplace the three poisons with inexhaustible fuel.”\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n
\r\nThe former TVA Chairman wrote that in 2007 his boook\r\n\r\nWinning Our Energy Independence: An Energy Insider Shows How<\/a>,\r\nwhich also says (page 4):\r\n \r\nThere are breakthroughs in new technology that promise to make\r\nthe cost of solar power as low as that of coal, nuclear, and oil.\r\nAlmost simultaneously in South Africa and the Silicon Valley in the\r\nUnited States, companies are building huge new solar factories to manufacture\r\na paper-thin solar coating that can generate electricity that could\r\nactually lower<\/em> our electric bills.\r\nThese breakthroughs promise solar power at 75 percent less than today’s price.\r\n\r\n\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n \r\n \r\n\r\nAs can be seen from the graph at the left, recent solar module\r\nprices have experienced a dramatic price reduction. From 2006 to\r\n2012, a six year span, worldwide average module prices have dropped\r\nabout 75% from $3.25 per watt to about $.80 per watt, an incredible\r\ndrop.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n \r\nPart of the drop was due to a bottleneck in producing raw polysilicon\r\nfor photovoltaic panels, which was addressed by adding capacity.\r\n \r\nIn addition to the polysilicon issue, the decline is also being\r\ndriven by a) the increasing efficiency of solar cells (ratio of\r\nelectrical energy produced to sunshine energy) b) dramatic\r\nmanufacturing technology improvements, c) economies of scale and d)\r\nintense competition which lead to module oversupply. The incredible\r\nsolar growth rate of 55% per year over the last 5 years allowed\r\nmanufacturing efficiencies that are unheard of in other industries.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n \r\nInterestingly, thin-film solar is not even yet a major driver of\r\nprice drops.\r\nFriedman was actually too conservative<\/em> in his prediction,\r\nbecause he assumed breakthroughs in solar-to-electricity\r\nconversion methods would be necessary,\r\nbut actually so far it’s been manufacturing methods, economy of scale,\r\nand competition, all of which will continue for some years.\r\nAnd we will also see on top of that effects of new PV technologies,\r\nand also of storage technologies ranging from batteries\r\nto compressed air.\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\nAnd that price has driven deployment up, also exponentially\r\nlike compound interest, and will continue to do so.\r\nIt will take less than ten years for solar power to produce\r\nmore electricity than any other U.S. energy source,\r\n\r\nas predicted by former FERC Chair Jon Wellinghoff in 2013<\/a>.\r\n\r\n \r\nAgainst that backdrop,\r\nDave Flessner wrote for the Chattanooga Times Free Press, 23 January 2015,\r\n\r\nTVA president calls for ‘customer focus’<\/a>,\r\n \r\nCLEVELAND, Tenn. — Providing the lowest-cost energy,\r\nresponsibly managing natural resources and supporting job creation\r\nare all part of Tennessee Valley Authority’s partnership with the\r\nlocal municipalities and power cooperatives that sell TVA power, TVA\r\nPresident Bill Johnson said Thursday.\r\n<\/p>\r\n \r\n“If can make sure everybody has a job, and they can go fishing and\r\nthey have a bill they can afford to pay, then we’re being\r\nsuccessful,” Johnson told the Cleveland Utilities board during a\r\nvisit Thursday.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n \r\nThat’s nice, but what’s he actually planning?\r\n \r\nJohnson said this year is one of the biggest ever for capital\r\ninvestments by the federal utility as TVA finishes construction of\r\nthe Watts Bar Unit 2 reactor, installs coal scrubbers at the\r\nCumberland Fossil Plant near Nashville and builds new natural gas\r\nplants in Tennessee and Kentucky.\r\n<\/p>\r\n \r\nBut those expenditures will taper off in the near future, said\r\nJohnson.\r\n<\/p>\r\n \r\nA “big decision” will likely need to be made in the next five or six\r\nyears regarding whether TVA will build new nuclear power plants, he\r\nsaid.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n \r\nWith no mention of solar power.\r\nAnd no mention of nuclear waste, cost overruns, and radioctive leaks.\r\nAnd no mention of natural gas methane lakes, or pipeline leaks or explosions\r\nor damage to the environment and takings of private land.\r\n \r\nSo “customer focus” means concentrating blindly on money\r\nwhile ignoring all those economic externalities.\r\n \r\nBack in 2007 David Friedman wrote:\r\n \r\nThis book will demonstrate that it is entirely practical and feasible\r\nto get all our energy from renewable resources and to do so with today’s\r\ntechnology.\r\nWe don’t need to wait for decades in order to get started.\r\nThe day that the United States commits itself to a sustainable march\r\nto an all-renewable energy economy is the day the world changes.\r\nIt will change in these dramatic ways:\r\n \r\nAnd we will use less and less “natural” gas each year,\r\nand we won’t need any new land-taking environmentally damging pipelines,\r\nmuch less fracking.\r\n \r\nAnd this energy transition is already happening,\r\neven without any formal U.S. commitment,\r\nbecause of the massive continuing price drop in solar power\r\nand the continuing massive solar deployment that price drop is causing.\r\n \r\nCurrent TVA Chair Johnson did say:\r\n \r\nOverall, Johnson said he expects to see less coal use, more\r\nrenewable energy and improved efficiency in TVA’s future.\r\n<\/p>\r\n \r\nTechnological advances in the next 20 years will likely surpass the\r\nadvances made in the last 100 years of electrical power, he said.\r\n<\/p>\r\n \r\n“I think we are on the precipice … of tremendous change,” said\r\nJohnson. “Customers use electricity a lot differently than they used\r\nto. We make it differently.”\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n \r\nWell, yeah, we are in fact\r\nin the middle of a revolution like the one\r\n\r\nfrom horses and buggies to automobiles<\/a>,\r\nthis time\r\n\r\nfrom fossil fuels and nuclear to solar and wind power<\/a>,\r\nfirst for electricity, then for transportation.\r\nAnd TVA is still living in the last century.\r\n \r\nFormer TVA Chair S. David Friedman accurately predicted the future\r\nthat has happened in the past seven years.\r\nMy money is on him.\r\n \r\nIt’s not like it’s a hard problem once you think about it.\r\nAs\r\n\r\nFriedman also wrote<\/a>:\r\n \r\nIt is an unhappy fact that the places where additional oil in the\r\nU.S. may be found are places of extreme beauty that most Americans\r\nbelieve ought to be left alone. What we know is that today’s\r\nepidemics of asthma and cancer are caused in significant part by\r\nburning over 7 billion barrels of oil a year in close proximity to\r\nAmericans. Just think if all vehicles ran on renewable electricity\r\nthat emitted zero pollution? The air would be fit to breathe. The\r\nstreets would be free of the oil spills from cars and trucks that\r\npollute nearby waterways.\r\n<\/p>\r\n \r\n… efficiency and renewables are cheaper even on the misleading\r\npricing system we use. If we consider ”and we must ”the\r\nhealth costs of air pollution, the proliferation and radiation risks\r\nof nuclear, and the health and global warming costs of coal, it is a\r\nno-brainer.\r\n<\/p>\r\n<\/blockquote>\r\n \r\nIf you want more detail,\r\nStanford Professor Mark Jacobson has spelled out\r\n\r\nhow to power each state with sun, wind, and water<\/a>\r\nand how much each state will save, not only in reduced power costs,\r\nbut also in reduced health care costs and healthier lives.\r\n\r\n
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<\/a>\r\nAnd that price drop has happened, according to\r\nsources such as\r\nthe U.S. Department of Energy<\/a>.\r\nSolar Cell Central<\/a> says:\r\n\r\n\r\n
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<\/a>\r\nMeanwhile, solar power\r\n\r\nis already cheaper than all other forms of energy<\/a>, because\r\nnone of the others show exponential price drops, so solar has\r\nparachuted in from above.\r\n![](\"https:\/\/farm9.staticflickr.com\/8226\/8421700685_a46c93cf27_n.jpg\")
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